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July 1st 2008

RMB may Accelerate Post-Olympics

The first half of 2008 has come to a dramatic end, and it’s official: China’s stock market was the world’s worst performer, finishing down 48%. Ironically, some analysts believe this may be a harbinger for a faster appreciation of the Chinese Yuan. While the global credit crisis cannot be completely disentangled from the Chinese macroeconomic picture, certain conclusions can be drawn that are specific to China. In a nutshell, the party may be over. Inflation has surged to a 10-year high, economic growth is slowing, and stocks are facing a prolonged bear market. The Chinese government will likely continue to bide its time so as not to disrupt the Olympics. After the conclusion of the games, however, the Central Bank may begin aggressively hiking rates in order to tame inflation. While this would adversely affect economic growth, it would cause the RMB to appreciate. Forbes reports:

Maybe that’s what Shanghai’s decline is really telling us, that the China miracle may be losing some of its luster, as China tries to make the transition from a low-cost exporter to a leading provider of 21st century goods and services.

Read More: China Bulls Get Shanghaied

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Posted by Adam Kritzer | in Chinese Yuan (RMB) | No Comments »

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