Forex Blog: Currency Trading News & Analysis.

May 11th 2005

How not to play the Yuan

As rumors of Chinese Yuan revaluation intensify, investors have been searching for ways to profit. Many have simply purchased massive quantities of Yuan, guided by the belief that the Yuan will instantly appreciate upon China’s allowing it to float. Other investors have found a more creative way to play the rumors, by investing in Japanese Yen. Such investors speculate that Japanese exports will instantly become more attractive when the Yuan is allowed to appreciate. Certainly, Chinese revaluation will make Japanese imports more affordable to Chinese consumers. However, experts insists this increase will be negligible.

Many investors also believe that more expensive Chinese products, brought on by Yuan revaluation, will also increase exports for other Asian countries. While such logic can be extended to other countries with low cost labor forces, it does not apply to Japan. Experts point out that Japan and China have vastly different economies, and do not compete in the same markets. China is known for its textiles and labor-intensive wares, while Japan is known for its technology, and machine production. Reuters reports:

[A Representative for] JP Morgan Chase Bank said Japan’s exports to China did not grow even when the yuan, along with the dollar, gained against the yen. He noted that much of Japan’s exports to China are parts for products that are then exported again to markets such as the U.S. and Europe. Global demand is far more important in determining the strength of Japan’s exports, he said.

Read More: Yen to rise when China frees yuan? Don’t bet on it

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Posted by Adam Kritzer | in Chinese Yuan (RMB), Japanese Yen | No Comments »

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