Forex Blog: Currency Trading News & Analysis.

October 25th 2008

End of the Dollar Carry Trade

One can usually assume that any talk of the carry trade is in reference to the Japanese Yen. In this case, however, it is the Dollar that is being driven by a shift away from the popular strategy of borrowing in one currency and investing the proceeds in assets dominated in another. In explaining the recent Dollar rally, analysts have tended to focus on the pall of risk aversion that has descended upon global capital markets, coupled with the spread of the credit crisis from the US to the rest of the world. While these are certainly contributing factors, perhaps they should also look at the repatriation of Dollars that were initially sent abroad over the last decade in search of loftier returns. Hedge funds and other institutions, including those based outside of the US, took advantage of record-low interest rates to borrow Trillions of Dollars and invest them abroad. Due to a combination of margin calls and client "withdrawals," however, such investors have been forced to not only unwind such positions, but return the proceeds of the US. The Guardian UK reports:

Data collected by the Bank for International Settlements shows that European and UK banks have five times as much exposure to emerging markets as US and Japans banks, with surprisingly big bets in Latin America and emerging Asia – where they rely on dollar funding rather than euros.

Read More: Dollar roars back as global debts are called in

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Posted by Adam Kritzer | in Investing & Trading, US Dollar | No Comments »

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