Forex Blog: Currency Trading News & Analysis.

April 3rd 2008

USD: Worst Quarter in 4 Years

In the first three months of 2008, the USD notched its worst quarterly performance since 2004, falling over 8%. During the same period, the Dollar lost 10% of its value against the Japanese Yen and 6.4% against a broad basket of currencies. Forex analysts reckon the slide was so steep because investors have taken stock of the US economic situation and have concluded that recession is inevitable. The story is also being driven by interest rates. The Fed has already cut rates by 300 bps in the current cycle of easing, making the benchmark federal funds rate the lowest in the industrialized world, in real terms. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank is giving every indication that it will maintain rates at current levels in order to keep a lid on inflation. As a result, the Dollar could fall further, especially if the Fed continues to hike rates and investors use the currency to fund carry trades. Reuters reports:

[According to one analyst], "And to call a bottom now is still a very risky call. It’s too early to say the worst is behind us and the dollar’s in for a sharp rebound."

Read More: Dollar logs weakest quarter vs euro since 2004

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Posted by Adam Kritzer | in Investing & Trading, US Dollar | No Comments »

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