Forex Blog: Currency Trading News & Analysis.

April 16th 2008

USD May be Nearing Bottom

The USD continues to dominate conversation in forex circles, as investors ponder whether the currency will fall further or whether it has already sunk as low as it can go. One commentator recently encapsulated the debate into six factors, three bullish on the Dollar and three bearish.  Number one on the side of bearishness is the interest rate situation. Short term US rates are negative in real terms, and savvy investors are using the Dollar to fund carry trades in order to take advantage of higher yields outside the US. The second and third factors are technical: based on one measure, the Dollar is not nearly as "oversold" as it was in 1992, the last time the Dollar suddenly reversed a multi-year decline.  In addition, the "open interest" on the Euro is not as large as it should be if traders were preparing to dump it.

First on the list of factors supporting a bullish outlook is the US recession. This is somewhat counter-intuitive, but history shows that US economic weakness typically coincides with Dollar strength.  Perhaps this is because many countries depend on the US to drive the global economy.  In fact, the Dollar is already rising against certain emerging market currencies that rely on the US as an export market. In addition, overseas investors tend to park their capital in the US during periods of global economic instability because of its continued reputation as a safe haven.  Second, the economies of the UK and the EU are already weak and growing weaker every day.  The only reason their respective Central Banks have not eased monetary policy is because they are also focused on combating inflation. However, they may soon have to sacrifice price stability in favor of economic growth, at which point interest rate differentials will begin to reverse themselves in favor of the US.  The final reason for bullishness is technical; based on a series of indicators different from those listed above, the Dollar IS oversold  and the recent slip downward may presage an upward shift.

Read More: Has the U.S. Dollar Bottomed?

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Posted by Adam Kritzer | in Investing & Trading, US Dollar | No Comments »

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