AUD Nears Parity

The word "parity" is becoming a mainstay of traders in the forex markets.  In 2007, it applied to the Canadian Dollar, which had rallied 70% over the course of five years to reach the mythical 1:1 level against the USD.  This year, it is the Australian Dollar that is threatening to surpass the Dollar in value. The AUD has always benefited from general USD weakness, but now the focus is shifting to the AUD, itself. The most recent Australian price data suggests that inflation in Australia remains problematic, which could force its Central Bank to raise the benchmark lending rate to 7.5%.  In addition, high commodity prices and consequently strong exports should provide demand for the currency. As always, analysts are divided over the likelihood of parity, but that hasn't stopped them from bandying the term about. The Australian Age reports:

Parity was never a "ridiculous suggestion." "But it's probably a bit tougher going because the Australian economy is slowing," says one analyst. "Then again, if you saw a reacceleration in growth, that might be a different story."

Read More: Our dollar on a roll...

ML Introduces 5 Currency ETNs

Together with a consortium of large banks, Merrill Lynch recently formed ELEMENTS, which unveiled five new currency Exchange Traded Notes (ETNs).  Before ML entered the market via ELEMENTS, there were only two banks offering currency ETF products: Barclays Capital and Rydex, whose funds are branded CurrencyShares and iPath, respectively.  ETNs differ from ETFs in that the former represent a debt obligation whereas the latter represent a form of equity.  In practice, however, since the risk of default is relatively low, the two types of securities are functionally equivalent.  Both pay interest slightly below the benchmark interest rates of the currencies to which they are connected. The five new ELEMENTS ETNs are separately tied to the performance of the Canadian Dollar, Euro, Swiss Franc, British Pound, and Australian Dollar. Index Universe reports:

Why would anyone choose the new ELEMENTS ETFs? Because they make semiannual cash dividend payments to noteholders based on the interest income. The iPath ETNs, in contrast, incorporate that income into the value of the note ... a kind of "virtual interest" that is only realized when the noteholder sells.

Read More: Currency Market Gets More Competitive 

Forex Forecast

Forex Forecast- try saying that three times fast! The Market Oracle, an online financial publication, has done even better, preparing a one-year forecast for all of the major currencies along with a detailed analysis of the major factors driving each currency in the month of February. The Dollar and Yen are projected to be the strongest performers in this time frame, benefiting from a trend towards risk aversion.  It should be noted that this prediction is consistent with news reported by the Forex Blog earlier this week. On the other hand, currencies that have been propped up by the Yen carry trade, namely those of Australia, New Zealand, Canada and South Africa, will face selling pressure.  The British Pound is projected to underperform slightly, due to an easing of British monetary policy, which will narrow the interest rate advantage claimed over the US.

Finally, the Euro is something of a wildcard.  On the one hand, the EU economy is stagnating, and the ECB has hinted that rate cuts are a possibility. On the other hand, the Euro theoretically stands to inherit a significant amount of risk-averse capital, especially from foreign investors looking for a stable alternative to the Dollar.  Accordingly, the Market Oracle forecasts a short-term decline in the value of the Euro but a long-term appreciation.

Read More: Currency Market Strategy and Forecasts for February 2008

USD Draws Support from Abroad

2008 is still in its infancy, which means the self-proclaimed forex experts can be excused for offering their projections on what the year has in store for the Dollar.  If currencies were traded in a vaccum, the Dollar would probably trend upward, since many technical factors suggest it is oversold.  From a fundamental standpoint, however, it is probably overvalued, per the laws of interest rate parity and purchasing power parity.  Relative to other countries, though, it may be undervalued.  From this standpoint, argue some analysts, the biggest impetus for a Dollar upswing will come not from good news emanating from the US, but rather from bad news emanating from the rest of the world.  For example, the British economy, balance of trade, and monetary policy outlook is even more bleak than the US.  The CEO of Airbus, one of the EU's most important companies, has threatened to shift production away from the EU if the Euro remains expensive.  Finally, the Central Bank of China is allowing the Yuan to appreciate at a faster pace against the Dollar.  As far as Dollar bulls are concerned, it might be best if the US government simply sits tight. The BBC reports:

"A lot of bad news is already priced into the dollar. It's elsewhere that the shocks could come from, perhaps from the European Central Bank, or the Bank of England."

Read More: 2008 - the return of the dollar?

Swiss Franc Benefits from Volatility

As the Japanese Yen continues to enjoy the carry trade limelight, another currency fulfilling a similar role has been largely overlooked: the Swiss Franc.  While not quite as low as rates in Japan, Swiss interest rates are still extremely modest by international standards. As a result, many carry traders have used the Swiss Franc in much the same way as the Japanese Yen, selling it short in favor of higher-yielding currencies. And, just as the Japanese Yen has begun climbing over the last few months, so has the Swiss Franc.  The volatility in capital markets caused by the credit crunch is just as prevalent in forex markets, and is leading currency traders to eschew yield (high interest rates) in favor of stability, which benefits currencies like the Franc. The Economic Times reports:

Another trader with a multinational bank said with carry trades now coming under heavy pressure and banks being reluctant to fund investors entering into such trades, risk aversion seems to be taking over the global currency markets.

Read More: Swiss franc safe haven for carry trade

The Other Side of the Debate

Yesterday, I posted about how market volatility could spell the end of the carry trade, bringing down the Australian Dollar in the process. Today, I will explore the opposite side of the debate, by looking at the factor(s) which support a continued appreciation of the AUD.  A rise in global commodity prices have provided a windfall to Australia, which is rich in natural resources. Unfortunately, the boom in exports and the surge in domestic demand has trickled down in the form of inflation.  As a result, the Central Bank of Australia recently embarked on a campaign of tightening monetary policy.  While this may curb domestic demand, it may attract more foreign capital in the form of carry trades. The gap between US and Australian interest rates is now 2.25%, and looks set to widen further. The Australian Business reports:

The [Australian] dollar's trade-weighted value rose by 20 per cent between late 2002 and early 2004 but was much slower to respond in the 1970s boom, when the exchange rate was set by government.

Read More: Action needed as current boom echoes overheating of 1970s

Volatility Threatens Carry Trade

Advocates of the carry trade have long argued that the only thing that could possibly put an end to their fun would be a significant rise in Japanese interest rates, which seems quite unlikely at this point.  However, a new threat to the carry trade has emerged: volatility. Global capital markets have see-sawed over the last few months as credit concerns have surfaced, often related to America's housing bubble.  This month, the Australian Dollar and New Zealand Kiwi have been the two worst performers among the world's 17 most actively-traded currencies.  This is notable because these two currencies are most likely to be on the long end of carry trades.  Bloomberg News reports:

The currencies also slid against the U.S. dollar as Citigroup Inc. said it will report as much as $11 billion in additional writedowns, reducing demand for so-called carry trades.

Read More: Australian, New Zealand Dollars Fall on Renewed Credit Concerns

Australia to Hike Rates

Australia’s benchmark interest rate, at 6.50%, is already the highest in the industrialized world, after New Zealand. Ignoring the pleas of the Treasurer, the Central Bank of has all but decided to hike rates even further into the stratosphere at its next meeting.  The country is in a bit of a pickle, since a booming economy and the consequent inflation seems to demand a rate hike.  At the same time, this rate hike will ensure that Australia continues to be on the receiving end of Japanese carry trades, and this is precisely what irks Peter Costello, Australia’s Treasurer. In other words, the world’s massive economic imbalances will only be exacerbated by an Australian rate hike, but this may be a moot point as far as the Central Bank is concerned.  The Sydney Morning Herald reports:

Instability on global financial markets between now and the next Reserve Bank board meeting on Melbourne Cup day is seen by economists as the only force that could stay the bank's hand from raising rates to the highest level in a decade.

Read More: Look out for the tsunami, says Costello

Australian Dollar Approaches Parity

Over the last few months, the Australian Dollar has risen over 15% against the USD, bringing the currency to a 23-year high. With parity (1:1 exchange rate) in sight, some analysts are beginning to draw parallels between the Australian Dollar and the Canadian Dollar, which skyrocketed to parity against the USD just last month.  Both economies are rich in natural resources, relying heavily on them to drive exports.  In fact, more than half of Australia's exports are comprised of natural resources.  It is no surprise that as oil, gold, and a host of other raw materials have surged to record highs, the Australian economy has outperformed even the rosiest of expectations.  With China's economic boom promising to keep raw material prices high for the near future, the prospects for Australia's economy, and hence its currency, are brighter than ever.

What’s more, the basic divergence in growth is clearly tipping towards the momentum underlying the Aussie economy with consumer spending, business investment and export income promising strength for the economy and currency in the months to come.

DailyFX reports: Australian Dollar: The Next to Reach Parity?

Australian Dollar Reaches Record High

The Australian Dollar recently touched a 20-year high against the USD, having risen 15% in the last month alone.  In fact, the currency has proved to be one of the top performers against the USD in 2007, having benefited from continued weakness in the US economy.  It has also been one of the chief beneficiaries of the Yen carry trade, in which investors have sold Yen in favor of higher-yielding currencies, which also include the Swiss Franc and New Zealand Dollar.  Meanwhile, Australia's economy is surging, as Chinese demand for raw materials is unabated.  Many analysts are asserting that the Australian Dollar can go no higher, citing technical factors.  However, there seems to be just as many analysts who expect the AUD to test the outer limits of parity with the USD.  The Sydney Morning Herald reports:

The chief equities economist at CommSec, Craig James, said the dollar was now likely to enter the “nervous nineties.”

Read More: Australian dollar the strongest in 20 years

Dollar Holds Steady as World Awaits US Data Reports

Credit problems in the US have been the source of much turmoil throughout the global markets in the past few months. Tuesday was good for the US dollar, which held strong against both the yen and the euro. However, forthcoming economic reports from the US may or may not tip the scales. According to Reuters:

"The panic is almost over, but the market has lost its direction and is waiting for more news, especially any good news," said Kikuko Takeda, a currency strategist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ.

Read more: Dollar drifts as U.S. data awaited for direction

President Bush Announces Plan That Boosts Risky Currencies

Friday is looking up for risky currencies, as President Bush will announce a plan to help US  homeowners who are at risk of defaulting on their mortgage loan. This has eased the concerns of many forex traders who have been resting their money in low-yield currencies like the yen. Now, with the subprime mortgage issues being addressed by the US government, high-risk investments will resume. Reports Reuters:

"There is some reaction to Bush's plans to help out people who are in trouble with their mortgage payments and markets are also expecting some comments from Bernanke this afternoon regarding rate cuts. Both these factors are helping the carry trade," said Carsten Fritsch, currency strategist at Commerzbank Corporates & Markets in Frankfurt.

Read more: High yielders recover ahead of Bush, Bernanke

Interest Rate Differentials Rule Forex Markets

It has been a while since forex markets have been as focused on interest rate differentials as they are now. With the exception of the Canadian Loonie and Australian Dollar, all of the world’s major currencies are rising and falling almost entirely on the basis of interest rates. Until recently, the USD had forestalled its inevitable decline because interest rate levels were significantly higher than in other countries, and foreigners remained willing to finance the US trade deficit. Since the respective Central Banks of Britain and the EU began hiking rates, however, the Euro and British Pound have risen while the Dollar has plummeted. 

Meanwhile, the Japanese Yen is near historic lows because carry traders are borrowing at low Japanese rates and investing abroad. On the flipside, the New Zealand Dollar has surged, and the country is having a difficult time keeping investors away because its interest rates are so high. Interest rates have achieved such force that even changes in expectations, rather than changes in actual rates, are now more than capable of moving the market significantly.

Read More: Back to Interest Rate Expectations

Carry Trade Affects Swiss Franc

Low volatility combined with even lower interest rates has made the Japanese Yen into a popular target among forex traders, who borrow in Yen and short the currency in favor of higher-yielding alternatives.  It turns out the Japanese Yen, however, is not the only currency that is being driven downward by the carry trade; the Swiss Franc (CHF) has also become a victim in the last couple years.  Switzerland’s benchmark interest rate, at 2.25%, is the second lowest among industrialized nations, after Japan.  Moreover, the Swiss Franc is highly stable and liquid, which means it is well-suited for the carry trade.  Dow Jones News reports:

With global risk appetite remaining strong and carry trades remaining one of the primary driving forces in global currency markets, the franc is unlikely to get much respite from rate hike expectations.

Read More: Swiss Franc Slide Likely To Continue

Warren Buffet Returns to Forex

Two years ago, Warren Buffet made headlines when he entrenched a $20 Billion dollar bet that the USD would decline in the near term. Unfortunately for Mr. Buffet, who happens to be one of the world’s most respected investors, the Dollar had a great year, and Buffet lost almost $1 Billion. [However, over the course of the bet, which actually began three years prior, his company, Berkshire Hathaway, reputedly pocketed over $2 Billion]. Now, after a long hiatus, Buffet is returning to forex markets, though with much coyness; he has not announced explicitly which currency he is betting on. Analysts have varying opinions, with some speculating that he is shoring up his bet against the USD, while others anticipate a bet against the Yen, which is vastly undervalued, from a fundamental economic standpoint. Regardless, the markets are sure to take notice of someone of Buffet’s stature. The Financial Times reports:

Perhaps the most surprising call for him would be to reverse his stance on the dollar. Paul Mackel, currency strategist at HSBC, says it is possible that Mr Buffett thinks that US economic growth could accelerate, and has bought the currency.

Read More: What is Buffet Buying?

New currency ETF debuts on AMEX

An exchange-traded-fund (ETF) is similar to an index fund in that both types of securities are designed to track the performance of the index to which they are assigned. The crucial difference, however, lies in the fact that there is no centralized market for mutual funds, whereas ETFs trade on exchanges, and hence, charge lower fees to investors. At first, investment companies were reluctant to create currency ETFs, because they weren’t sure if demand was large enough to justify such products. Since currency trading surged in popularity, a spate of new currency ETFs have been introduced, the newest of which is designed to track the performance of a composite of ten of the world’s most important currencies. Previously, this type of product was only available to wealthy investors. Now, anyone with a brokerage account can index in such a way, and would be smart to do just that, in order to hedge against the decline in any single currency. The Daily News reports:

The fund is managed by DB Commodity Services LLC. “DBV will offer investors easy access to the returns of the currency markets by following a highly developed index previously available only to very sophisticated investors.”

Read More: New Means of Access to Currency Markets

Inflation may drive UK rate hike

The UK Pound has stood in virtual lockstep with the Euro, as both currencies have steadily appreciated against the USD. The UK Pound is poised to breakout, however, due to relatively high inflation. Inflation, in and of itself, would theoretically be expected to erode purchasing power and thus lead to currency depreciation. In this case, the opposite will likely obtain, as the byproduct of inflation will likely be a rate hike by the UK Central Bank to keep pace with price levels. The move will bring the short-term UK rate to 5%, just below the US Federal Funds Rate. AFX News reports:

”With consumer price inflation unexpectedly moving back up in August and core inflation rising, another interest rate hike in November remains very much on the cards.”

Read More: Pound gets lift from stubbornly high UK inflation

Australian Dollar buoyed by strong economy

The flagging Australian Dollar received a boost from the release of certain economic data, which seemed to paint an upbeat picture of the Australian economy. Australia recorded real GDP growth of 2.7%, marking the 14th consecutive year of economic expansion. In addition, Australian companies are realizing record profits, which they have promptly reinvested to drive growth. Coupled with falling energy prices and low levels of inflation, increased corporate investment signals Australia’s economy is in excellent shape. Forex traders reacted positively to the economic data and the subsequent decision by the Bank of Australia to maintain interest rates at current levels. The Financial Times reports:

The news, combined with Wednesday’s decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia, the central bank, to hold interest rates steady, helped nudge up the Australian dollar toward 77 cents against the greenback, outperforming other major currencies.

Read More: Australian GDP boosted by corporate investment

Canadian Dollar and Oil highly correlated

According to Bloomberg News, the correlation of the Canadian Dollar with the price of oil is currently .88, meaning there is an 88% of the Canadian Dollar appreciating following an increase in the price of oil. This relationship seems to explain much of the Canadian Dollar’s recent strength; the currency has appreciated against the USD for four consecutive weeks. Hurricane Katrina indirectly provided additional support for the currency, as Canadian oil and gas exporters have benefited from commodity prices, which are expected to remain high in the near-term. On September 7, the Central Bank of Canada is expected to raise interest rates and provide guidance for future rate hikes. Bloomberg News reports:

Stronger growth may prompt the Bank of Canada…to raise its benchmark interest rate more than once this year after keeping it unchanged since [last] October.

Read More: Canada's Dollar Climbs for Fourth Week in Five on Higher Oil

Canadian Dollar linked to Oil

It seems Canadian exchange rates are highly correlated with the price of oil. This is not surprising, as resource-rich Canada has the second largest proven oil reserves in the world. In short, as oil has soared to record highs, the Canadian Dollar has also risen. At this point, a play on the Canadian Dollar is tantamount to betting the price of oil will continue to surge. A general rise in commodity prices has also made Canadian natural resource companies more profitable and hence, more valuable. Foreign investors have poured money into Canadian resource stocks, some of which may soon be acquired by foreign firms. These investments necessitate foreign currency conversion into Canadian Dollars, which has further boosted the currency. If this were not enough, Canada’s economy is strong, its trade surplus is growing, and its Central Bank may soon raise interest rates. Bloomberg news reports:

“Oil, equities and general U.S. dollar selling” is supporting the Canadian dollar, said a chief foreign-exchange strategist. The Canadian dollar may also benefit from being included in China's currency basket as investors speculate about “the Chinese putting more of their money into Canada.”

Read More: Canadian Dollar Rises to Highest Since March on Oil-Price Surge

Rising US rates could impact NZD

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) continues to perform well, no doubt helped by a federal interest rate of 6.75%, which is currently the highest in the developed world. Investors in search of (relatively) risk- free returns have entered New Zealand en masse, sending the NZD to higher levels. This has occurred in spite of New Zealand’s lackluster economy, which is expected to grow by only 2% annually over the next couple of years. However, as US interest rates rise, the US-New Zealand interest rate differential, which in the past has been a source of NZD strength, narrows proportionately. This trend, combined with the prospect of falling rates in New Zealand, has led currency strategists to reevaluate their expectations for the NZD. Bloomberg news reports:

“With a declining yield spread against the U.S. we continue to favor selling rallies in the New Zealand dollar,” said a currency strategist at Bank of New Zealand.

Read More: N.Z. Dollar May Fall on Speculation Yield Advantage Will Narrow

Australian Dollar continues to appreciate

Among the world's major currencies, it seems the Australian Dollar is currently the most stable. Uncertainty surrounding the future of the EU has sent the Euro on a sharp downward spiral. Meanwhile, the persistence of the twin deficits continues to vex the US, and Japan has barely emerged from the throes of a multi-year recession. In contrast, Australia's economy is one of the healthiest and most stable among developed nations, and its interest rates are the highest in the developed world. Additionally, commodity prices are soaring, and inflation remains low. The Australian Dollar may be buoyed in the coming months by signs the Fed and European Central Bank are tightening monetary policy, which is likely to attract risk-averse foreign investors. The Australian Financial Review reports:

With the two major global currencies so much out of favour and the Australian currency's traditional drivers all flashing green, traders and speculators are finding they need little excuse to load up on the $A.

Read More: $A Cast as Belle of the Ball

Canada's Liberal Party Survives

For the last month few months, Canada has been embroiled in a political conflict with potentially far-reaching ramifications. The ruling Liberal Party stands accused of accepting bribes in exchange for doling out lucrative advertising contracts. Although no formal charges have been brought, many politicians have lobbied aggressively for a recall election of some kind. The action reached a climax last week, when it was expected the House of Commons would vote "no confidence" in the liberals. At the last minute, a prominent conservative switched parties, and was suspiciously awarded a cabinet position. The upshot is the Liberal Party will remain in power, but conservatives remain undeterred in their push for a change in power. However, this defeat has dealt a serious blow to their campaign. The Wall Street Journal reports:

[A conservative] said she had been troubled by Mr. Harper's strategy of trying to force a snap election by allying with the bloc Quebecois, which advocates independence for French-speaking Quebec province.

Read More: Canada's Liberal Government Survives vote

Canadian political crisis spreads to currency

The Canadian Dollar or 'Loonie' has declined to 7-month lows against the US Dollar, due largely to political uncertainty. And some analysts believe the worst is yet to come. The reason is most currency traders are valuing the loonie as though the current political crisis will soon resolve itself. In all likelihood, the current Prime Minister, Paul Martin, will soon be impeached. The PM's budget is currently being mooted by Canadian Parliament; if conservatives have their way, the budget will soon be rejected. Such an event would likely send the loonie spiraling downward to new lows. Analysts are also careful to note other macroeconomic factors which may be contributing to the loonie's decline. For instance, the recent decline in commodity prices has resulted in lower export revenues. In addition, a rising interest rate differential between Canada and the US may be driving risk-averse investors to move capital to the US. The Canadian Press reports:

The risk now is, the market is ill-prepared for the government to lose the vote. Even if risk-averse traders saw their worst fears realized and a federal election was called, experts say the volatility wouldn't likely have lasted more than a few days. International traders would quickly lose interest and avoid buying or selling the dollar until election day.

Read More: Currency turmoil could continue following crucial Commons budget votes

Canadian Dollar hits 7-month low

Last week, the Canadian Dollar began to fall precipitously, reaching a 7-month low. There were several factors which help to explain the sudden drop. First, Canadian Parliament passed a bill which effectively called into question the Prime Minister's leadership. The bill goes so far as to demand the PM's (Paul Martin) resignation. Next week, Parliament will vote on Martin's federal budget proposal. Analysts agree that a rejection of the budget is tantamount to a vote of no-confidence in the prime minister. A second cause for the decline in the Canadian Dollar may in fact be Canada's declining trade surplus. As the Canadian Dollar has appreciated, Canadian exports have become less competitive. As a result, manufacturing output and exports have both declined in recent months. The Canadian Dollar may suffer a "correction" in the short term as investors brace for political and economic uncertainty. Bloomberg News reports:

Canada's dollar has slipped 3.3 percent since April 7, when Justice John Gomery released the first portions of testimony from an inquiry that showed the ruling Liberals received payments in exchange for government advertising contracts in the province of Quebec. The scandal prompted the Conservatives to call for a no- confidence vote.

Read More: Canadian Dollar Drops to 7-Month Low on Trade, Election Concern

Australia announces tax cuts

After their victory in last month's election, Australia's center-right coalition has announced sweeping tax cuts. The government will return a $16 Billion budget surplus to citizens and businesses over the next four years. The purpose of the tax cuts is to stimulate an economy that has never fully recovered from the recession which occurred several years ago. Economists predict real GDP growth of 3% this year, which seems respectable until you compare it to rates of 4-5% which Australia perennially grew at in the late 1990's. Most of the tax cuts will take the form of a drop in personal income taxes, although retirees and businesses will also receive some of the surplus. Economists believe the tax cuts will be effective in stimulating the economy. However, not everyone is satisfied. The Financial Times reports:

“There is a lot in this budget that deserves a tick but it is also a budget of missed opportunities,” said Peter Hendy of the Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry.

Read More: Australia cuts taxes in post-election budget

Canadian jobs report buoys loonie

Last month, the story in Canada was of political fraud. However, the situation has been neutralized, and a recall election is no longer likely. As a result, Canadian investors have turned to economic statistics to shed light on the future direction of the Canadian dollar (loonie). The recent release of Canadian employment statistics underscores the strength of the vigor of the Canadian economy. Nearly 30,000 new jobs were created last month, the most in over six months. However, note analysts, many of these jobs were created in the public sector, and growth in manufacturing jobs is sluggish. The next major event will be the publication of Ontario's budget, noteworthy because Ontario is the largest Canadian province. Investors also await the release of new housing starts, and the trade balance with the US, expected to be positive. With the recall election a moot point, currency traders expect the loonie to continue to appreciate against the Dollar. The Canadian Press reports:

"I don't want to ignore the political backdrop, but I think a lot of that got factored into the currency in April when the Canadian dollar was the weakest major currency in the world," said a senior economist. "And to some extent the currency markets have already moved on and are looking at other things now."

Read More: Investors watching Ontario budget, housing starts

Inflation may cause rate increase in UK

The British Pound is continuing its run against the USD, as investors and traders anticipate a rise in UK interest rates. Newly released inflation data indicates that prices are increasing at a faster pace than interest rates, due to surprising strength in Britain's economy. At last month's meeting of the UK central bank, only one member voted to raise rates. At the time, the other members were confident that interest rates accurately reflected inflation expectations, and voted not to change rates. In response to this new development, they may be forced to act. Economists, however, are quick to point out that much of the rise in prices can be attributed to rising transportation and energy costs, and may not be an accurate metric of general economic performance. The Financial Times reports:

A senior forex strategist said that inflation was just 1.3 per cent if energy and transport costs were stripped out. He argued that the Bank would be unlikely to hike rates in response to an energy shock unless there was evidence of this feeding through into second-round effects such as higher wage growth.

Read More: Surprise Inflation Boost for Sterling

Political Instability Grips Canada

Canada is undergoing a political crisis with potentially far-reaching implications. The investigation concerns members of the Liberal Party of Canada, who may have received kickbacks in exchange for lucrative advertising contracts. The most prominent member of the Liberal Party happens to be Paul Martin, the Prime Minister of Canada. It is distinctly possible that Canadian Parliament will force an ad hoc election to see if Paul Martin shall remain Prime Minister.

It is extremely difficult to forecast the effects this type of crisis will exert on the economy, especially in a nation is perennially stable as Canada. Regardless, many investors are rushing for the exits, selling Canadian equities and Canadian Dollars. It is uncertain whether the political crisis is solely responsible for this flight of capital. Many analysts point to recent declines in the prices of global commodities, which could adversely effect Canada, a nation rich in natural resources. In addition, the Central Bank of Canada does not look set to raise interest rates, while its counterpart to the South will likely continue to raise rates at a measured pace. For all of these reasons, it will probably not be smooth sailing for the Canadian Dollar. Globeandmail.com reports:

"Political uncertainty may now be filtering through into foreign exchange markets," concurred Avery Shenfeld, senior economist at CIBC World Markets Inc. "We're getting a lot of calls about the odds of an election in the next few months. It has forced the markets to put a political-risk premium into Canadian assets, whether it's stocks, bonds or the currency," he said.

Read More: Foreign investors unload loonie

Auto manufacturers react to exchange rate fluctuations

At a recent automobile show in New York, auto manufacturers were talking about more than just the new models they planned to unveil- they also talked about how changes in the exchange rate were affecting business. American manufacturers have been the largest beneficiaries of the USD depreciation. In fact, many are beginning to export American-made cars to Europe, something which has been done only on a very limited basis in the past. Some foreign manufacturers are shifting production of cars sold in the US, to the US. Mitsubishi and Toyota are two examples of such companies. While clearly upset at the current situation, other foreign manufactures are using the poor exchange rate as an excuse to become more efficient and drive down costs. In the early 1990's, Toyota adopted many changes in response to a Strong Yen. After the Yen stabilized, Toyota was left with a vastly improved workforce and streamlined operations, and became even more profitable than it had been prior to the Yen's rally. Forbes.com reports:

Automakers outside the United States have born the brunt of the exchange-rate damage, but they shrugged off the currency effects in interviews this week. That's because most remember that last time the dollar was weak, their factories were mainly overseas. Since then, many have opened factories in the U.S.

Read More: Yen-Euro Salvation 

Most Influential People in FX

A recent survey attempts to identify the most important people in foreign exchange markets. Topping the list, unsurprisingly, is Alan Greenspan, chairman of the US Federal Reserve. The USD is the world's reserve currency, and Greenspan largely determines US interest rates. However, Greenspan will be stepping down in less than one year, and Ben Bernanke is rumored to be his replacement. He is an advocate of 'neutral' interest rates, and increased monetary transparency.

Jean-Claude Trichet, president of the European Central Bank, is probably the most influential foreigner. Although his past has been characterized by scandal, Trichet has earned the respect of most of the EU for his leadership during the transition to one universal European currency. Trichet is known for predicating monetary policy decisions on inflation expectations, rather than on economic growth. Accordingly, most economists agree that EU rates will continue to climb. Herve Gaymard, French minister of finance, has also achieved notoriety for his loud criticism of the weak dollar. He is encouraging Asian and European Central Banks to intervene and stem the dollar's decline.

Gordon Brown, chancellor of the UK exchequer, is probably as important more popular than Tony Blair, and a fiscal conservatist. He has managed to contain government spending, and prevented tax rates from increasing. Finally, Alan Bollard, governor of the reserve bank of New Zealand, has also achieved prominence, as New Zealand's interest rates are the highest in the developed world. As New Zealand's economy continues to grow, so may its interest rates.

View the Complete List: 20 Most Influential People in FX

UK Central Bank holds rates constant

The UK Central Bank voted today to keep interest rates constant at 4.75%.  The Bank's decision not to raise rates was based on the economy's recent stagnation, and general sentiments that inflation was where it should be. Most economists agree there is still downside risk in Britain's economy, as the housing market and the manufacturing sector are still weak. Investors anxiously await the publishing of the Bank's minutes, to see if there were any dissenting votes, as was the case at last month's meeting. Such dissension, combined with a release of new macroeconomic projections, might lead to a rate hike in the coming months. But, as BNP Paribas reports, such is unlikely:

Nevertheless, the MPC is likely to keep rates on hold in the coming months as more evidence of sub-trend growth is likely to appear. A possible rate cut will crucially depend on the next Chancellor's fiscal policy. A tighter fiscal stance could pave the way for more monetary relaxation, but such a change can for the moment be ruled out.

Read More: United Kingdom: Bank of England keeps repo rate unchanged at 4.75%

Australia, New Zealand currencies remain strong

Investors have been flocking to the so-called Aznac (Australia and New Zealand) currencies of late, in search of high yields. Australia and New Zealand both currently offer some of the highest interest rates in the industrialized world. Moreover, analysts believe the two central banks will further tighten credit by raising interest rates in the near term. In the past, investors in search of risk-less, stable, returns simply purchased American treasury securities. However, as the USD declines, foreign investors earn negative real returns on the treasuries they hold. As a result, many are beginning to move money to other developed nations, where the risk of default is equally unlikely, but interest rates are higher. The Australian Financial Review Reports:

What looked like the long-awaited rebirth of the US dollar at the start of this year appears to have been a false signal. Investors, starved for yield elsewhere, are responding by recycling out of US dollar-denominated assets.

Read More: Investors switch to the Anzac currencies

Japan looks to decrease USD reserves

Japan has the largest USD reserves in the world, valued at over $700 Billion. The recent appreciation of the Japanese Yen against the dollar has effectively devalued these reserves. In fact, for each Yen gained against the Dollar (i.e. a move from 105 JPY/USD to 104 JPY/USD), Japan loses over $7 Billion Dollars. As a result, Japan's central bank may follow Russia's example by shedding some of its USD reserves, and replacing them with Euros.  Analysts predict that Japan will ultimately hold Euros and USD in a 1:1 ratio. Japan is feeling additional pressure as a revaluation of the Chinese Yuan looms on the horizon. If its central bank doesn't begin gradually selling off its dollar reserves now, it may find itself competing with China for buyers, which will only accelerate the decline of the dollar. Forexnews.com reports:

Japan should especially start lightening its hand from US assets before China initiates the fray when it eventually revalues its currency and sees less of a need to purchase US dollars in intervention over time

Read More: The Year of the Yen

Canadian Central Bank ponders interest rate hike

Canada is a nation rich in natural resources. Accordingly, its economy has benefited from recent spikes in commodity prices, coupled with a broad increase in demand for raw materials. Unfortunately for Canada, this increase in demand has exerted upward pressure on its currency (CAD), which could  plausibly lead to a reduction in future foreign demand for its products. The result is something of a catch-22: present increases in exports may be offset by future decreases. In response, the Canadian Central Bank will forgo a planned hike in exchange rates, and instead wait until the Canadian Dollar (hopefully) depreciates relative to the USD. Mellon Financial Reports:

General USD movement...is problematic, as the economy is penalised by the stronger CAD, without benefiting from higher demand for Canadian products.

Read More in a report published by Mellon Financial.