February 10th 2009
Yen, Dollar may Lose Safe Haven Status
In accordance with yesterday's post, it appears that this February is set to continue the trend of low volatility observed in previous years. With the US government on the verge of passing a record economic stimulus package, investors are becoming increasingly confident about the prospects of the global economy to avoid recession. On the surface, it would seem that the stimulus should benefit the economy, and by extension the Dollar. However, this ignores the fact that the Dollar is currently being driven by fear- the idea that the US remains a safe haven for investing- rather than by economic fundamentals. The same holds true for the Japanese Yen. Accordingly, regardless of how the stimulus ultimately impacts the economy, it will certainly increase risk tolerance in capital markets, potentially leading investors to shift capital out of the US and Japan into higher-yielding sectors. Bloomberg News reports:
"A lot of money that sat on the sideline is now being put back to work," said [one analyst]. "People are starting to move to make risky bets."