Forex Blog: Currency Trading News & Analysis.

June 23rd 2008

EU Inflation CounterBalances Oil

Forex analysts reckon the two most powerful forces weighing on the Dollar are commodity prices and European prices, so-to-speak. With regard to commodity prices, it seems plausible that rising commodity prices have contributed to a weaker Dollar, as much as vice versa. Thus, when Saudi Arabia announced recently that it would increase oil production, the Dollar received a nice boost. Conversely, European prices, or inflation, are important for traders to monitor because they represent a proxy for the future of EU monetary policy. Specifically, Eurozone inflation just touched another high, at 3.7%, which analysts point out is now 1.7% higher than the ECB’s stated comfort zone. The likely result is an interest hike in the near-term, which would further widen the differential with US interest rates. Unless, of course, the Fed follows suit with a rate hike if its own. Forbes reports:

"High oil and food prices are already clearly denting any hopes for a pick-up of private consumption but only a severe deterioration of economic confidence indicators might prevent the ECB from pulling the rate trigger at the next rate-setting meeting."

Read More: Euro climbs as inflation figures cement rate hike expectations

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Posted by Adam Kritzer | in Economic Indicators, Euro, US Dollar | No Comments »

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