Forex Blog: Currency Trading News & Analysis.

February 28th 2008

USD: What is the story?

Recent news reports have painted a downright bleak picture of the US economy. Home prices are now falling. Equity prices are also falling, at an annualized rate of 20%.  Meanwhile, energy and food prices are rising, dipping into what little purchasing power consumers can still claim.  Somehow, as DailyFX, recently reported, the Dollar has held its own. Their reasoning is that there is a struggle being waged in forex markets between yield and growth. On the one hand are investors who are bearish on the Dollar because of interest rates that are headed downwards, despite already being low.  On the other hand are investors who think that yield is comparatively unimportant, since the rate cuts are needed to shore up the economy. While interest rate differentials do not favor the US, the economic growth that they are intended to bring about tell a different story. DailyFX reports:

The only problem with this thesis is that 2 percent interest rates or 100bp is about as low as the market expects the Fed will go. If banks are forced to take more write-offs and the US economy deteriorates further, the Federal Reserve may be forced to go below 1.00 percent.

Read More: What Matters More For the US Dollar:  Yield or Growth?

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© 2004 - 2018 Forex Blog.org. Currency charts © their sources. While we aim to analyze and try to forceast the forex markets, none of what we publish should be taken as personalized investment advice. Forex exchange rates depend on many factors like monetary policy, currency inflation, and geo-political risks that may not be forseen. Forex trading & investing involves a significant risk of loss.